Editor of Wired, Chris Anderson, wrote an interesting explanation of three different personality types in trend forecasting:
1) position people who judge where something is at the moment
2) velocity people who judge something compared to past size
3) acceleration people who judge something on its rate of growth
He links the sensational “endism” to type 3 and excuses this kind of analysis in the following way:
We at Wired…live in the whiplash world of acceleration space, where tiny fluctuations in trend velocity can either be blips or the beginnings of the next big thing. We’re pretty good at telling one from the other, and thus I think our occasional endism is seen as the effective rhetorical device it is. Industries really do crumble and reshape, and it’s our mandate to spot the signs first.
I’m often “endist” on the fate of Japan’s cultural industries. To be sure, from a “Position” analysis, Japanese pop culture is all swell, but from the other two perspectives, there are problems about. If you believe religiously that culture has absolutely no connections to social structures and moves in some kind of cosmic cycle, I can’t convince you that industry conditions shape the ways in which funds are allocated to artists and distributed. But if we do take structural growth into consideration, things have seen better days.